Yoram Ettinger

By Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative”
May 26, 2021, https://bit.ly/3bRqzDu

Official Palestinian demographic numbers are highly-inflated, as documented by a study, which has been ongoing since 2004:

*500,000 overseas residents, who have been away for over a year, are included in the Palestinian census, contrary to international regulations. 325,000 were included in the 1997 census, according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, and 400,000 in 2004, according to the Palestinian Election Commission. The number grows steadily due to births.

*350,000 East Jerusalem Arabs are doubly-counted – by Israel and by the Palestinian Authority. The number grows daily due to births.

*Over 100,000 Arabs, who married Israeli Arabs are similarly doubly-counted. The number expands daily due to births.

*350,000 Arab emigrants from Judea & Samaria are excluded from the population census of the Palestinian Authority, notwithstanding the annual net-emigration since 1950.   For example, 26,357 in 2019, 7,778 in 2018, 15,173 in 2017, 15,502 in 2016, 16,393 in 2015 and 24,244 in 2014, as documented (exists and entries) in land, air and sea international passages.

*A 32% artificial inflation of Palestinian births was documented by the World Bank (page 8, item 6) in a 2006 audit.

*The Judea & Samaria Arab fertility rate has been westernized: from 9 births per woman in the 1960s to 3.02 births in 2021, as documented by the CIA World Factbook. It reflects the sweeping urbanization, growing enrollment of women in higher education, rising marriage age and the substantial use of contraceptives.

*The number of Arab deaths in Judea & Samaria has been systematically under-reported for political and financial reasons.

*The aforementioned data documents 1.5 million Arabs in Judea and Samaria, when deducting the aforementioned documented-data from the official Palestinian number (3 million).

In 2021, there is a 68% Jewish majority in the combined area of Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel, compared to a 39% Jewish minority in 1947 and 9% in 1897.  In 2021, the 68% Jewish majority benefits from fertility tailwind and net-immigration, while Arab fertility is Westernized, in addition to net-emigration from Judea and Samaria.  No Arab demographic timebomb; but, a Jewish demographic momentum.
More data in https://bit.ly/3hOqHY6